Our most resourceful and useful Mantra is this:
No one can predict every move of BTC (or any other asset), but with a bit of guidance, we can prepare to benefit from big opportunities as they arise.
Following up on my article of 08 Aug 2022, I had said:
Main take-away from this chart is most simply that a close below $20,760.93 will likely trigger a decline down to test support at prior low of $17,567.45, and either bounce off it or accelerate through it to a new lower low. That price is very nearby now and so its breach is expected to happen any day, by mid-September.
I was too early, because we are nearly two months past mid-September. But now we have finally arrived at the expected “test” of the prior low of $17,567.
The test began on Nov 08, 2022, so far has failed to provide much of a bounce and has now continued to close below $17,567 on each of the five days since.
The downside acceleration that is currently forecast, has not yet materialized, and would become far less likely to occur if the close of the daily price bar (per Coinbase) goes above $18,140.62.
But for now, the downside acceleration is still expected to occur as of this writing.
If we assume that BTC will still manage to survive at any price (theoretically it should because it is only computer code, but that theory would be severely tested because that code requires a network of miners to maintain, and miners require block rewards in the form of valuable BTC to continue to pay the expenses of mining), then we should identify the likely prices of support where we may be able to bring our average cost down by accumulating more at those lower prices, upon any such further weakness.
So here are some key prices which may provide support where the price may be tested and either hold and bounce off, or fail and signal downside acceleration:
(Although lower prices are bigger bargains, they are also increasingly strong signs, of at least the widespread perception, of some deeply insurmountable problems which the BTC network may not be able to survive. Therefore, I plan to have deployed all of the capital I have allocated for BTC by the time it reaches $3,128.89 level, and do not have any current plans to add more on any further weakness below that price.)
However, we may also plan how and when we will deploy the balance of our intended BTC allocation, in the event that those lower prices are never reached. The following closing prices (per Coinbase reported prices) will be signals that the bottom may have already been made and that the remaining capital allocated for BTC may then be reasonably deployed upon new strength as the following levels of overhead resistance are exceeded (while bearing in mind that these levels will likely need to be adjusted lower if and when new lower lows are reached below $15,512):
So how can we use this info to best deploy our capital to capitalize on this opportunity?
A.) Add upon further weakness, at areas of underlying support, and
B.) Add the remaining balance of the total capital to be deployed, upon new strength which is sufficient to breach the areas of overhead resistance.
Lastly, a couple of good reasons why the bottom might already be in now at $15,512:
- In the markets anything is possible; and,
- When the cacophany of retoric of the “professional” naysayers (who have no logical reason for their wildly overconfident pronouncements which are backed only by their own huge vested interest in maintaining their old status quo), finally becomes so shrill as it has now following the FTX debacle (so cock-sure that things can only get worse from here); that type of dogpiling behavior is most often found at the bottom!
(Oops, longest sentence record breaker? Sorry! For now I will blame it on the coffee;)
Legal: I am only a fellow investor, not an advisor, and this is only speech, not advice!
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