Ouch, so yesterday I was a little spooked seeing that BTC has dipped below $19,000 to a range of $18,316. However, at that range buyers for BTC came, taking the price of BTC today to more than $19,000. However, BTC has clearly broken the psychological support range of $20,000 and now that range holds strongly as resistance.
I understand this will be hard for people who had thought BTC has reached its bottom at $20,000 but now as BTC has failed to maintain support st $20,000 range, it’s obvious BTC’s price is going to tumble down!!
BTC’s price has been below the 200 SMA and 200 EMA since this year where the two important moving averages have served as resistance for BTC.
Historically, whenever BTC’s price came below the 200 SMA and 200 EMA participants it was brought, as at that range BTC was perceived to be oversold by the market. This time even though BTC’s price has been below those two ranges, it did not get bought up by market participants.
Wonder why this time BTC price to buyers’ dynamics is different from other BTC market cycles.
Well, this is the first ever bear market cycle, BTC is in. Yup, that’s right, BTC has never functioned in a recessionary market background like now so BTC price to buyer dynamics is playing differently out than usual.
If this was not a bear market in the larger macro-economic context, I am sure BTC would have been bought up at current price levels and would have maintained support at the $20,000 price level.
Buyers prefer to hold US dollars which is the World Reserve currency and save than invest on risk-on assets. Yes, BTC is still considered as a risk on an asset by the world’s investor community.
The US Dollars has appreciated to other world Currencies as it’s value tops in the DXY index at $110,375
Price movements in Major stock indexes are also showing clear signs that the macro economic climate is majorly bearish, yes majorly bearish.
S and P index prices have also been fallingwith price movements failing to maintain support at $4,070, this price range is serving as resistance.
When prices rallied on June 17, it failed to go beyond the 200 SMA as this 200 SMA arc served as resistance.
This means prices are going to tumble, it’s fate now as price bleeds in a major bear market.
It’s a similar story for DJI index.
Now prices are not even trying to break and find support at the major support range of — 33,030. Price has failed to break the 200 SMA and 200 EMA as well, as these arcs served as resistance points after touching which prices have only tumbled down. Again, conveying that it’s a bear market environment.
Price movements in the major technology index, Nasdaq has had a price just breaching a major support range of $12,000.
The range is serving as resistance. Price has not been able to earlier rally over the 200 EMA arc, which served as resistance after which price has fallen down beyond support price range of $12,000.
So, all in all price movements in major US indexes echo loudly that we are in a bear market.
We all know what caused this situation. Yes of course, the US FED has made its stance clear that US inflation is still untamed and they will tamper it aggressively with their interest rate hike policy.
So, borrowing costs have increased and there is no easy money flowing now to buy up assets and prop up asset markets.
Let’s guess what will be BTC floor price in this price fall situation
So, till what price will BTC fall?, where will its potential bottom be?
It will be somewhere in the price ranges of $14,000, $12,000 or $10,000. We can expect a minimum 80% correction from BTC’s top for sure, that will bring BTC’s price to $13,900 levels.
So, guys brace up for more crypto price falls.
Thankyou for reading.
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