Quarterly Global Market Analysis 9/10
This one is going to be big, macro, and significant. Multiple things are happening.
We have a lot of things in flux, and this is a time people are scared. It’s time to focus. Not time to open your wallet, nope. But to be prepared for all possible situations ahead of us. Focuses: CL (Oil) SPX (Stocks) BTC and the Ruble (RUBUSD).
First, war impacts: Russia is screwed and Ukraine made an extremely significant and successful military play. I’ve been writing on the professional side about how significant this is, but it cannot be understated the impact of these two countries.
Good insights at the link below. Note it is Russian propaganda to be like “sanctions are not working”. Remember, Russia is thought of as a major oil producer who has now limited themselves to effectively China as a customer. Oil talk after this.
Russia and Kazakhstan have been fighting on Oil, Kazakh’s are not aligned with Russia. They’re the so country between Russia and China, that’s significant. https://eurasianet.org/russia-blocks-kazakhstans-main-outlet-for-oil-exports
Followed up with this second one, which if you note shows that Russia is literally trying to aggressively sanction people with Oil. It’s not working, long term. Short term, sure.
This is very much a back and forth, but non-BRIC countries (IE: capitalism) are focused on helping Kazakhstan. Simple play;
In short, Oil situation is this:
Russia -> China, Kazakhstan -> EU. Other plays are EU -> Azerbijan and US -> EU export (both ramping up exports).
This is good for: The US, and bad for: Russia paying with crypto and bad for Oil price.
So if oil is going to crash, is that good or bad? No clear answer. Bad for environment (cheap oil encourages use), bad for market (oil market crash), good for Europe, mixed for USA. So alright, oil -> way down.
That is weekly though, and monthly has a lot of time to go the other way- but unlikely and we’ll have plenty of time to know. If it explodes, could save #Russia and #BTC. So this is global financial war.
Oil crash will hit ruble and by definition catapult the DXY. Remember, DXY is bullish on quarterly!
On top of that we have: Ruble (RUBUSD): So supposedly strong, and yet rejects at a key trend on quarterly as well.
Weekly Ruble says correction time in channel, more down. So, Oil down Russia down. At least for the time being, which invalidates many expectations.
Onto $BTC. Can you guess what I see repeated here? See that 3 month repeat on the left?
And yet stock market ($SPX) couldn’t be more different.
Even an 80% correction on stock market is still bullish territory. That’s how bullish that is. What would 80% drop to $BTC if BTC is 1–4x the move the SPY is? Phrase I like to use is get the hell outta dodge. This would be $BTC mirroring the Luna drop. 99% drop -> 99% drop, etc. Sure adds up to the $1 Billion dollars that has exited crypto this last 10 days alone and tons beforehand. I could add up August, but it’s not going to be any better — 3 billion exited in August. This is institutions, which is telling a very clear picture:
So, we’re appearing to be in the most maximum bearish expectation territory, for crypto. I’m fine riding micro bullish waves, but macro I now see why the fed is saying “lots more rate hikes are totally ok” and they’re right.
Let’s say we flip? If I’m wrong, we are about to define a rapid bottom and go upwards quickly on the market — within 3 months. But I’m quite confident in this one for the next 6–9 months.
Again, even bearishness is not forever. But it is still where our minds should be for now. And we should be holding our wallets in $USD safely as DXY is clearly telegraphing. Investments right now? Small.
Watch for 2 week and 3 month (1 quarter) moving averages, that’s where this movement is.
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